Artificial Intelligence for Monitoring Elections (AIME)

AIME logo

I published a blog post with the same title a good while back. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

Citizen-based, crowdsourced election observation initiatives are on the rise. Leading election monitoring organizations are also looking to leverage citizen-based reporting to complement their own professional election monitoring efforts. Meanwhile, the information revolution continues apace, with the number of new mobile phone subscriptions up by over 1 billion in just the past 36 months alone. The volume of election-related reports generated by “the crowd” is thus expected to grow significantly in the coming years. But international, national and local election monitoring organizations are completely unprepared to deal with the rise of Big (Election) Data.

I thus introduced a new project to “develop a free and open source platform to automatically filter relevant election reports from the crowd.” I’m pleased to report that my team and I at QCRI have just tested AIME during an actual election for the very first time—the 2015 Nigerian Elections. My QCRI Research Assistant Peter Mosur (co-author of this blog post) collaborated directly with Oludotun Babayemi from Clonehouse Nigeria and Chuks Ojidoh from the Community Life Project & Reclaim Naija to deploy and test the AIME platform.

AIME is a free and open source (experimental) solution that combines crowd-sourcing with Artificial Intelligence to automatically identify tweets of interest during major elections. As organizations engaged in election monitoring well know, there can be a lot chatter on social media as people rally behind their chosen candidates, announce this to the world, ask their friends and family who they will be voting for, and updating others when they have voted while posting about election related incidents they may have witnessed. This can make it rather challenging to find reports relevant to election monitoring groups.

WP1

Election monitors typically monitor instances of violence, election rigging, and voter issues. These incidents are monitored because they reveal problems that arise with the elections. Election monitoring initiatives such as Reclaim Naija & Uzabe also monitor several other type of incidents but for the purposes of testing the AIME platform, we selected three types of events mentioned above. In order to automatically identify tweets related to these events, one must first provide AIME with example tweets. (Of course, if there is no Twitter traffic to begin with, then there won’t be much need for AIME, which is precisely why we developed an SMS extension that can be used with AIME).

So where does the crowdsourcing comes in? Users of AIME can ask the crowd to tag tweets related to election-violence, rigging and voter issues by simply clicking on tagging tweets posted to the AIME platform with the appropriate event type. (Several quality control mechanisms are built in to ensure data quality. Also, one does not need to use crowdsourcing to tag the tweets; this can be done internally as well or instead). What AIME does next is use a technique from Artificial Intelligence (AI) called statistical machine learning to understand patterns in the human-tagged tweets. In other words, it begins to recognize which tweets belong in which category type—violence, rigging and voter issues. AIME will then auto-classify new tweets that are related to these categories (and can auto-classify around 2 millions tweets or text messages per minute).

Screen Shot 2015-04-10 at 8.33.08 AM

Before creating our automatic classifier for the Nigerian Elections, we first needed to collect examples of tweets related to election violence, rigging and voter issues in order to teach AIME. Oludotun Babayemi and Chuks Ojidoh kindly provided the expert local knowledge needed to identify the keywords we should be following on Twitter (using AIME). They graciously gave us many different keywords to use as well as a list of trusted Twitter accounts to follow for election-related messages. (Due to difficulties with AIME, we were not able to use the trusted accounts. In addition, many of the suggested keywords were unusable since words like “aggressive”, “detonate”, and “security” would have resulted in large amount of false positives).

Here is the full list of keywords used by AIME:

Nigeria elections, nigeriadecides, Nigeria decides, INEC, GEJ, Change Nigeria, Nigeria Transformation, President Jonathan, Goodluck Jonathan, Sai Buhari, saibuhari, All progressives congress, Osibanjo, Sambo, Peoples Democratic Party, boko haram, boko, area boys, nigeria2015, votenotfight, GEJwinsit, iwillvoteapc, gmb2015, revoda, thingsmustchange,  and march4buhari   

Out of this list, “NigeriaDecides” was by far the most popular keyword used in the elections. It accounted for over 28,000 Tweets of a batch of 100,000. During the week leading up to the elections, AIME collected roughly 800,000 Tweets. Over the course of the elections and the few days following, the total number of collected Tweets jumped to well over 4 million.

We sampled just a handful of these tweets and manually tagged those related to violence, rigging and other voting issues using AIME. “Violence” was described as “threats, riots, arming, attacks, rumors, lack of security, vandalism, etc.” while “Election Rigging” was described as “Ballot stuffing, issuing invalid ballot papers, voter impersonation, multiple voting, ballot boxes destroyed after counting, bribery, lack of transparency, tampered ballots etc.” Lastly, “Voting Issues” was defined as “Polling station logistics issues, technical issues, people unable to vote, media unable to enter, insufficient staff, lack of voter assistance, inadequate voting materials, underage voters, etc.”

Any tweet that did not fall into these three categories was tagged as “Other” or “Not Related”. Our Election Classifiers were trained with a total of 571 human-tagged tweets which enabled AIME to automatically classify well over 1 million tweets (1,263,654 to be precise). The results in the screenshot below show accurate AIME was at auto-classifying tweets based on the different event types define earlier. AUC is what captures the “overall accuracy” of AIME’s classifiers.

AIME_Nigeria

AIME was rather good at correctly tagging tweets related to “Voting Issues” (98% accuracy) but drastically poor at tagging related to “Election Rigging” (0%). This is not AIME’s fault : ) since it only had 8 examples to learn from. As for “Violence”, the accuracy score was 47%, which is actually surprising given that AIME only had 14 human-tagged examples to learn from. Lastly, AIME did fairly well at auto-classifying unrelated tweets (accuracy of 86%).

Conclusion: this was the first time we tested AIME during an actual election and we’ve learned a lot in the process. The results are not perfect but enough to press on and experiment further with the AIME platform. If you’d like to test AIME yourself (and if you fully recognize that the tool is experimental and still under development, hence not perfect), then feel free to get in touch with me here. We have 2 slots open for testing. In the meantime, big thanks to my RA Peter for spearheading both this deployment and the subsequent research.

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